Economy's impact on interactive advertising?

Boy are there enough different thoughts out there about how the Digital World/Interactive space will fare in this current "recession"? Everything from Sequoia Capital's doom and gloom, hunker down strategy (shades of the Dot.Bomb era?) to "don't worry, interactive ad dollars will shift from traditional media to interactive and the impact will be minimal.



Actually, the right answer is there is no answer. It is difficult to imagine the interactive space won't feel some of the pain as reduced spending across all industries starts to set in. The question is how much? Given the measureability of digital marketing and the ability to respond to the market quickly, "effective" digital marketing should continue to see its fair share of budget dollars. Performance related campaigns, in paid search and elsewhere should also do well as long as revenue and ROI goals are being surpassed.



The typically hot fourth quarter retail advertising and sales will be a barometer of what may be to come. Will shoppers tend to go on-line versus drive gass guzzlers to the mall? Will retailers push on-line specials even more to be where consumer eye balls are? Strong on line activity and results may bode well for even flat or at least, less reduced 2009 budgeting; but a Q4 of weak results may make Q1 in particular, an unhappy place for all marketers, including digital.



In any case, the companies that get even closer to their clients, become true parters through real creativity and uniquely new ideas while trying to understand more about their client's clients, will be best positioned to retain contracts, win new business and weather the inevitable coming storm.



No great revelations here I suppose but what do you think???